Last month, ContractorCalculator carried out research revealing that many MPs will lose their seats if they do not get the self-employed vote. The results of the research came from a prior survey of contractors and figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
ContractorCalculator has now published a list of the top 100 MPs who are at risk of losing their positions due to the off-payroll IR35 reforms that HMRC, the Treasury and Chancellor Philip Hammond are trying to push through Parliament.
There are 85 MPs holding a majority in Parliament who could potentially lose their seats if the self-employed turnout votes as expected to voice its dissatisfaction with the IR35 proposals. The remaining 15 MPs will be at risk if the self-employed turnout is larger than expected.
Dave Chaplin, CEO of ContractorCalculator, said: “This single piece of damaging policy could prove catastrophic for all parties involved, not least the Tories, who make up 43% of the at-risk seats. There is also potentially a lot to gain for some, but those in precarious positions will have to act swiftly and earnestly to win over contractors’ trust.”
ContractorCalculator identified the MPs at risk by comparing their majority from the last election with the potential number of self-employed voters in their constituencies.
The at-risk MPs include 33 Labour MPs, 43 Conservative MPs and seven Liberal Democrat MPs. This means that the Conservatives have the most to lose from the dissatisfaction of self-employed voters. The margins for some seats are not impressive, with some MPs having majorities in very low figures.